Sobre la evolución de los balances energéticos de la agricultura española, 1950-2000

On the one hand, this article reviews the works presented on energetic analysis of Spanish agrarian systems since the 80's and, at the same time, we emphasize the originality and validity of those texts. On the other hand, we update to 2000 the estimates of the energy balance tor Spanish agriculture as a whole showing how the loss of energetic efficiency of agriculture has increased in the 90s. As a result of it, we have an agriculture with a growing and continuous dependence 01 energy, and not only due to the increasing use of machinery and fertilizers, but also because 01 the growing energy demand supported by electricity and petroleum, and related to the indiscriminate extension of the irrigable land with independence of the hydrological conditions of the territory

Welfare regimes as enablers of just energy transitions: Revisiting and testing the hypothesis of synergy for Europe

.Welfare States are considered key tools to provide just transitions. The hypothesis of synergy states that Social-democratic regimes are in a better position to accomplish them. While synergy has been widely theorised, its empirical verification has remained less studied and provided contradictory results. The weaknesses detected in the state-of-the-art, such as the misalignment of empirical testing and the theoretical drivers of synergy, as well as inconsistencies in the selection of variables and biases imposed by classifications in discrete timings, lead us to define an improved methodological framework. We apply the continuous observation of Ward's hierarchical clustering in squared Euclidean distances under Thorndike's criterium to twenty-three European countries between 2008 and 2016 and reject synergy after detecting that Social-democratic regimes display the best social conditions but the worst environmental performances and that society and the environment are not linked. This outcome motivates us to propose a discussion with a focus on the sustainability of economic growth and the opportunities for sustainable welfare scholarship to settle it.S

Just transitions to renewables in mining areas: Local system dynamics

[EN] In the field of just energy transitions, local scales have been relegated and limited to qualitative approaches with non-specific methods by observation. Local quantitative approaches have gained popularity but remain far from the topic of just transitions and elude rural areas, probably because of data scarcity. Amid the quantitative panoply, system dynamics is attracting greater attention to alleviate such data shortages. Yet, despite the claim for holistic approaches, its application is scarce in rural contexts. This research presents an intuitive, scalable, and easily adaptable modelling exercise through system dynamics to estimate the effects on net employment and land availability of restructuring towards renewable energy sources in the rural mining areas of León (Spain), presenting possible lessons and policy implications for local and rural just transitions. A partially just transition is feasible in the short term, but a properly just transition is three decades late. The most optimistic projections suggest the potential creation of around five thousand jobs per zone, which is significantly fewer than the approximately forty-five thousand jobs that were recorded during the peak years of coal mining exploitation. Renewables fail to keep a young, qualified population in the areas, therefore showing the need to potentiate alternative activities, as well as causing sensitive trade-offs between land requirements and potential net employment. Land reductions for renewable projects vary depending on the scenario, ranging from 6 % to 17 %. This range poses a threat to the ecological integrity of these areas.S

Less than 2°C? An Economic-Environmental Evaluation of the Paris Agreement

Producción CientíficaThe literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies the variation in emissions that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will entail and their financial allocation and policies country-by-country and regionally. The objective is evaluating the Paris Agreement feasibility regarding the INDCs and its economic and environmental constraints. The criteria through which the 161 INDCs are analysed are as follows: i/ socio-economic impact of the transition; ii/ focus on energy management; iii/ substitution of non-renewable sources; iv/ the role of technology; v/ equality of the transition; vi/ compliance with emission reductions. The results obtained show that the Paris Agreement excessively relies on external financial support (41.4%). Moreover, its unilateralist approach, the socio-economic and biophysical constraints could be the underlying cause of the ineffectiveness of the 2 °C objective. This way, each country would emit an average of 37.8% more than in the years 2005–2015. When this is weighted, the figure would be a 19.3% increase, due mainly to the increases in China and India. These figures would lead the temperatures up to 3°–4 °C.European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287

Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios

Producción CientíficaIntegrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module within a broader system dynamics model (MEDEAS) has been developed. The model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends; Green Growth (GG), undertaking the low-carbon transition according to the Paris Agreement set of policies and with high GDP growth standards; and Post-Growth (PG), testing the sustainability transition under a GDP non-growth/degrowth approach. The results reveal the conflict between economic growth, climate policy and the sustainability of resources. Whereas a BAU approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals, a GG view would not only face the downsizing of economic output, but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 °C objective. The success of the PG approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution.European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287)Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-85110-R

An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU

Producción CientíficaThe Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287)Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (Project ECO2017-85110-R

Limitaciones críticas de los actuales procesos de transición energética justa en el caso estratégico de León

León ha experimentado los impactos socioeconómicos negativos del declive de las explotaciones mineras y de la generación eléctrica basada en el carbón sin posibilidad de recurrir a actividades alternativas adecuadas e inmediatas, a pesar de su potencial estratégico energético, tecnológico y productivo para la región. Estos eventos concurren e interactúan con la creciente polarización del territorio, la pérdida de población y la desaparición de tejido empresarial. Ante esta situación, la necesidad de una transición energética justa en León ha congregado un importante apoyo social y político. Sin embargo, la consecución de esta justicia es más una modesta intención que una concreción cercana. Esta comunicación presenta el marco conceptual, político-normativo y socioeconómico de las transiciones energéticas justas en León. A continuación, explora los procesos de participación pública y los resultantes Convenios de transición justa promovidos por el MITECO en la provincia (Montaña Central-La Robla y Bierzo-Laciana con sus áreas prioritarias de Fabero-Sil, Bierzo Alto, Laciana-Alto Sil y Cubillos del Sil-Ponferrada) e identifica las limitaciones críticas de su diseño y ejecución, agravadas por la Covid-19. Finalmente, determina las implicaciones socioeconómicas, tanto finales como procedimentales, a nivel local y regional, de las actuales propuestas de transición energética justa

Identifying past social-ecological thresholds to understand long-term temporal dynamics in Spain

A thorough understanding of long-term temporal social-ecological dynamics at the national scale helps to explain the current condition of a country’s ecosystems and to support environmental policies to tackle future sustainability challenges. We aimed to develop a methodological approach to understand past long-term (1960-2010) social-ecological dynamics in Spain. First, we developed a methodical framework that allowed us to explore complex social-ecological dynamics among biodiversity, ecosystem services, human well-being, drivers of change, and institutional responses. Second, we compiled 21 long-term, national-scale indicators and analyzed their temporal relationships through a redundancy analysis. Third, we used a Bayesian change point analysis to detect evidence of past social-ecological thresholds and historical time periods. Our results revealed that Spain has passed through four socialecological thresholds that define five different time periods of nature and society relationships. Finally, we discussed how the proposed methodological approach helps to reinterpret national-level ecosystem indicators through a new conceptual lens to develop a more systems-based way of understanding long-term social-ecological patterns and dynamicsThis work was supported by the Biodiversity Foundation (http://www.fundacion-biodiversidad.es/) of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment. Partial financial support was also provided by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (project CGL2014-53782-P: ECOGRADIENTES). The Spanish National Institute for Agriculture and Food Research and Technology (INIA) funded Marina García-Llorente as part of the European Social Fund. Blanca González García-Mon participated in this article as a “la Caixa” Banking Foundation scholar. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, preparation of the report, or the decision to submit the study for publicatio